Possibility of Higher Hospitalizations for Vaccinated COVID-19 Individuals?
In recent times, there have been claims circulating on social media platforms suggesting that vaccinated individuals are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID-19 than unvaccinated people. However, these claims are based on misinformation spread by anti-vaccine groups.
The truth is, vaccines, particularly mRNA vaccines, provide an expected or near-expected level of protection against COVID-19. Vaccines have a protection rate of around 90%, meaning they significantly reduce the chances of getting sick or dying.
However, it's important to note that in a 100% vaccinated population, some people would still end up in the hospital. This is because vaccines do not provide 100% protection. As the vaccination rate increases in a population, the vaccination rate among hospitalizations also tends to increase. But this rate of vaccinated individuals in the hospital is not meaningful and can be misleading.
Data shows that vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization is moderate soon after vaccination but declines notably after several months. For instance, within 7 to 59 days post vaccination, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization was about 51-54%. However, at 180 to 299 days post vaccination, vaccine effectiveness dropped to near zero or negative (–4% to –7%), indicating waning immunity over time.
Among older adults (65+), effectiveness against hospitalization early after vaccination was higher (~54%) compared to younger adults (31%), which reflects differential vaccine protection by age and possibly underlying health. Booster doses have been shown to increase protection compared to two doses alone.
It's also crucial to consider that hospitalized patients with severe illness often have underlying conditions, including immunocompromising conditions, which can reduce vaccine effectiveness and increase ICU admission risk despite vaccination. Among children hospitalized for COVID-19, only a very small fraction (<4%) were up to date on vaccinations, and many had chronic illnesses.
Thus, the presence of vaccinated individuals among hospitalized patients does not indicate vaccine failure but rather reflects the waning of vaccine-induced immunity over time, reduced effectiveness against newer virus variants like Omicron, more vulnerability among older or immunocompromised populations, and the importance of booster doses for maintaining protection.
In conclusion, a high vaccination rate among hospital patients is an insignificant and misleading statistic. The decrease in hospitalizations and deaths after vaccination indicates the success of the vaccination program. For a deeper understanding of this topic, read our article on base rate fallacy.
[1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2022). COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/index.html [2] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2022). COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/booster-shot.html [3] World Health Organization. (2022). COVID-19 Vaccines. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/covid-19-vaccines [4] National Health Service. (2022). COVID-19 Vaccination. Retrieved from https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/ [5] American Academy of Pediatrics. (2022). COVID-19 Vaccination. Retrieved from https://www.aap.org/en-us/advocacy-and-policy/aap-health-initiatives/Pages/COVID-19-Vaccine.aspx
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