Decrease in tourist numbers by 83%, yet confidence among tourism industry gradually climbing up
International tourism is gearing up for a significant rebound in 2021 and 2022, according to current predictions. This recovery, however, is expected to be a steady one, with growth continuing into later years, albeit at moderated rates compared to immediate post-pandemic rebounds.
Key forecasts suggest that international tourist arrivals and spending will increase by around 3% to 7% annually during this period. Notably, important regional growth is anticipated in the Asia Pacific and Africa.
Several factors are considered vital for tourism's recovery in 2021 and 2022. These include public health and safety measures, geopolitical stability, economic conditions, sustainability efforts, digitalization, and government support and policy.
Ongoing management of COVID-19 with vaccinations and testing protocols remains crucial to rebuild traveler confidence. Reduced tensions and stable international relations facilitate travel flows. A global economic recovery supports travel demand, while economic challenges can restrict it. More focus on sustainable and responsible tourism shapes industry strategies, responding to changing consumer preferences. Adoption of digital tools enhances traveler experience and industry efficiency. Coordinated policies, such as Germany’s integration of tourism in economic ministries, promote sector rebound and sustainable growth.
Projections from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and others expect leisure travel market growth around 3-5% annually continuing into 2022 and beyond, after an explosive rebound in 2021. The recovery is characterised as strong but gradually shifting towards sustainable, lower-margin volume growth as the market stabilises.
However, the road to recovery is not without its challenges. The UNWTO Confidence Index shows signs of a slow uptick in confidence, but lack of coordination and inconsistencies in travel and health protocols are identified as major obstacles to the tourism sector's rebound.
In the first quarter of 2021, international tourist arrivals decreased by 83% compared to the same period in 2020. Europe and the Americas recorded the second-largest and largest declines, respectively, with drops of 83% and 71%. Asia and the Pacific had the lowest levels of international tourist activity, with a 94% drop in arrivals from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021.
The total loss in export revenues from international tourism (including passenger transport) amounts to nearly US$ 1.1 trillion. The Middle East saw a decline of 78% in international tourist arrivals and a decline of 69% in real terms in receipts. Africa recorded a decline of 81% in international tourist arrivals.
Despite these challenges, there is hope on the horizon. The vaccination rollout in some key source markets and policies to restart tourism safely, such as the EU Digital Green Certificate, have boosted hopes for a rebound in certain markets. Improving coordination, communication, making testing easier, and more affordable are necessary for a potential rebound in the summer season in the northern hemisphere.
Nearly half of the experts do not see a return to 2019 international tourism levels before 2024 or later. The percentage of respondents indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 has somewhat decreased. However, 60% of experts expect a rebound in international tourism only in 2022, up from 50% in the January 2021 survey.
In summary, international tourism in 2021 and 2022 is widely predicted to recover significantly, driven by health safety improvements and supportive policies, with sustained growth thereafter shaped by geopolitical, economic, sustainability, and digital factors. The challenges lie in overcoming inconsistencies in travel and health protocols and fostering coordination and communication to facilitate a smooth and safe rebound.
- The eco-friendly destinations are expected to attract more tourists as sustainability efforts become a focal point in the tourism industry's recovery strategy.
- The local tour businesses should consider digitalization to enhance the traveler experience and increase industry efficiency.
- The tourist arrivals and spending in the Asia Pacific and Africa are anticipated to show important regional growth in the upcoming years.
- The business travel sector, heavily impacted by the pandemic, is expected to return at moderated rates compared to the leisure travel market.
- Despite the challenges, the finance sector sees potential for a rebound in certain markets with the rollout of vaccines and policies to restart tourism safely.
- The lifestyle of travelers may shift towards lower-margin volume growth as they prioritize sustainable tourism destinations.
- The European tourist industry, while recovering, still struggles with inconsistencies in travel and health protocols, impeding a smooth rebound.
